Bitcoin’s recovery may soon face its biggest challenge yet, with onchain data suggesting that while one source of selling pressure is fading, another could emerge around the psychologically important $69,000 level.
According to blockchain analytics platform Glassnode, investors who bought Bitcoin during the later stages of the previous bull market appear to be slowing their pace of loss-taking—a development that has historically coincided with the final phase of bear markets.
Late-cycle buyers may have finished the bulk of their selling
Glassnode lead analyst Cryptovizart pointed to the realized losses of one-to-two-year Bitcoin holders as one of the most reliable indicators for identifying market bottoms.
This group accumulated BTC between July 2024 and July 2025, when prices surged from roughly $62,800 to over $107,000. As Bitcoin later corrected, many of these investors entered unrealized losses and gradually began selling below their purchase prices.
Historically, this capitulation process intensifies throughout bear markets before eventually losing momentum. The latest data suggests that may now be happening again.
The 30-day moving average of realized losses for this cohort recently climbed above $75 million before beginning to decline, indicating that forced selling from these holders could be tapering off.
Rather than marking an immediate reversal, the trend suggests that one of the market’s largest sources of supply may no longer be accelerating.
Recovery now depends on reclaiming $69,000
With distribution pressure easing, attention is shifting toward whether Bitcoin can overcome the next major onchain resistance.
Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain report identifies approximately $69,000 as a crucial price level because it represents the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders. The area also matches Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 cycle, making it a key psychological threshold.
The convergence of these factors means many investors who have been trapped in losing positions could finally break even if Bitcoin reaches that level, increasing the likelihood of renewed selling activity.
As a result, $69,000 may become the market’s next decisive battleground.
A successful breakout would indicate that buyers are strong enough to absorb profit-taking from recently underwater investors, potentially opening the door for a broader recovery. Conversely, failure to reclaim the level could reinforce the current trading range and delay any meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s longer-term trend.
For now, Glassnode’s data paints a mixed but increasingly constructive picture: selling pressure from older holders appears to be fading, but the market must still prove it can overcome one of its most significant overhead resistance zones before confirming a sustained recovery.
