France has taken a decisive step against the fast-growing prediction market industry, ordering internet service providers to block access to Polymarket over concerns that the platform operates outside the country’s gambling framework.
The decision highlights a growing divide between regulators and prediction market operators. While platforms like Polymarket market themselves as tools for forecasting real-world events, French authorities argue they increasingly resemble unregulated gambling services that expose users to significant risks.
The country’s gambling regulator, Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), stated that Polymarket lacks authorization to operate in France and warned that promoting unauthorized gambling platforms could lead to criminal penalties, including fines reaching €100,000.
The move comes as prediction markets continue gaining global traction. Users can trade contracts linked to everything from election outcomes and sports results to inflation data and geopolitical events. The sector has attracted billions of dollars in trading activity, fueled by the idea that market participants can collectively generate accurate forecasts. However, regulators in multiple jurisdictions remain unconvinced that these platforms fit within existing legal frameworks.
France’s concerns extend beyond licensing issues. Authorities argue that prediction markets incorporate many of the same engagement mechanics found in traditional gambling products, but without the safeguards typically required in regulated markets. Officials believe this creates a heightened risk for consumers, particularly when participation can occur with limited oversight.
Regulators also pointed to allegations that some event outcomes could be vulnerable to manipulation. One example involved weather-related contracts, where authorities claimed that weather monitoring systems may have been compromised, raising questions about the integrity of certain market results.
The scrutiny intensified after French investigators reportedly identified weaknesses in user verification procedures. A cybercrime investigation launched by the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office in 2026 found shortcomings in identity verification measures, including insufficient Know Your Customer (KYC) controls.
France is not acting in isolation. A growing list of countries—including Singapore, Brazil, Indonesia, Portugal, Poland, Hungary, and Ukraine—have already restricted access to Polymarket. The platform currently reports being geoblocked across dozens of jurisdictions worldwide.
Meanwhile, regulatory pressure is mounting in the United States as well. Several states have accused prediction market operators of running unauthorized sports betting businesses, while federal regulators continue to defend their authority over event-based financial contracts. The legal battle underscores a broader question facing the industry: whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling platforms, financial products, or an entirely new asset class.
As governments intensify oversight, the future growth of prediction markets may depend less on user demand and more on whether operators can successfully navigate an increasingly complex global regulatory landscape.
